AUSTIN, Texas — With the midterm election less than a month away, the U.S. Senate race in Texas has turned into a genuine contest, an unusual spot for Republicans in a state where Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994, the longest such drought for either party in the country.
A Marist poll released this month found Democrat James Talarico at 47% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45% among likely voters, inside the range where either could be ahead. Among registered voters, Talarico led by 4 points, down from 6 points the month before. Likely voters who call themselves independents favored Talarico, 52%. Even so, 53% of likely voters said they expect Paxton to win no matter whom they support.
Other surveys have shown a similar dead heat, with some putting Talarico in front. The race is seen as pivotal to which party controls the Senate and ranks among the most expensive Senate contests in U.S. history, with conservative groups spending heavily to shore up Paxton and other Republicans on the ballot.
Paxton, 63, is the state’s attorney general. He won the Republican nomination earlier this year by unseating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, and President Donald Trump has endorsed him. His career has been dogged by legal and political trouble. He settled a state securities case without admitting guilt and was impeached by the Republican-led Texas House on abuse-of-office charges before the state Senate acquitted him. He has also turned down chances to debate his opponent.
Talarico, 37, is a Democratic state legislator, a former teacher and a seminarian. Republicans have cast him as too liberal for Texas, and Trump has given him a mocking nickname.
The broader Texas picture is mixed for both parties. In the same Marist survey, Republicans led the generic congressional ballot by 5 points among likely voters, and Gov. Greg Abbott held a 49% to 45% lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Trump’s job approval among likely Texas voters stood at 46%, with 54% disapproving. Nearly four in 10 likely voters said their vote for Congress is mainly a vote against the president.
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